Picks & Shovels: The Evolution of Run

Where will the Running Boom Go Next?

As a pragmatist, I’m always interested in exploring the ceilings and peaks of trends and business; not out of fear, but to plan the next moves, take advantage of opportunities, and avoid the pitfalls of hubris and foolish optimism. Growth rarely follows a straight path, and the running industry is no exception. While Q3 shows continued strength and momentum, shifts in cycles are inevitable.

Right now, I am particularly interested in the behavior of the large, relatively new wave of runners—those who have entered the sport in recent years, signed up for races, built routines, and found identity and community through running. As these runners mature in the sport, their needs will evolve.

New runners gradually become consistent runners, then transition into goal-driven runners, and eventually become lifestyle athletes. At each stage, their requirements become more complex: they need better support, more innovative recovery methods, more intentional training, guidance, injury prevention strategies, nutrition advice, coaching, and products that grow with them.

Therefore, the key question for the industry is not simply how high the peak can go, but how well brands can support the runners who remain in the sport.

We are early into the mid-cycle. The next phase will not be defined by speed; it will be characterized by depth, service, and long-term value for an evolving population of runners.

#Running #Recovery #Sportswear

Runners at the 2025 NYC Marathon (credit: Sean Damian Tucker)